Who will emerge as prime minister from Wednesday’s elections in Solomon Islands? The prime minister doesn’t shape policy in Solomons as much as some commentators suggest. Prime ministers there are largely prisoners of political economy. Still, as I wrote on 4 April, exactly who emerges on top after the election still has some importance. The prime minister will set the tone of relationships with China and Australia. Some would do a somewhat better task of governing the country than others too. And the incumbent, Manasseh Sogavare, has a popularity problem in poorer parts of Honiara. His select ..read more

I came to this evening of short films not sure what to expect. I have a history with West Papua (here referring to the Indonesian part of the island of New Guinea, which comprises five provinces, one named “West Papua”) from my days fronting the legendary West Papuan band the “Black Brothers” in the early 1990s. During that time, I was exposed to stories of struggle and pride in the identity of the people of West Papua. From their declaration of self-determination and self-government and the raising of the Morning Star flag on 1 December 1961, to the so-called “Act of Free Choice” referendum i ..read more

Last night the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its preliminary data on Official Development Assistance (ODA) spending by the 31 country members of its Development Assistance Committee (DAC) in the 2023 calendar year. Once again, total aid from these donors has increased (by 1.8% in real terms, to US$224 billion) year-on-year. And, once again, Australia languishes near the bottom of the rankings when it comes to aid generosity (just in front of Portugal, at 26 out of 31 bilateral donors), despite a real increase in aid spending of 7.8% relative to 2022 “due ..read more

Results of the 14 February elections in Indonesia suggest that voters chose to be led by the current Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto and his Vice President, the sitting President’s son. Two presidential contenders, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, have challenged the results, with their cases to “save the future of Indonesia’s democracy” presently ongoing in the Constitutional Court. While the pending court case is important, many anticipate that the outcome is unlikely to change. Indonesia’s next chapter is about to begin, and it is time for international agencies to reflect on how the ..read more

During New Zealand’s 2023 election campaign, a pre-election promise made by the National-led coalition, now in government, was to increase the cap on numbers employed under the Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme to 38,000 by the end of the decade (up from 19,000 in 2022-23) and, possibly, to open RSE recruitment up to other countries. The suggestion to expand the RSE scheme — which has had a clear Pacific preference from the outset — to countries beyond the region might seem unexpected. However, the scheme has, in fact, always allowed for the recruitment of a relatively small number of ..read more

Global demand and prices for cocoa have soared in the past few years with the price now the highest it has been in over 44 years – USD6,514 per metric ton as of 27 February 2024. In Papua New Guinea, cocoa ranks third among agricultural export crops, following palm oil and coffee, contributing around 14% of national agricultural export revenue. Smallholder farmers are responsible for more than 80% of cocoa production, with cocoa farming serving as the primary income source for approximately two million people. Since 2008, there have been warranted concerns for PNG’s cocoa industry, particularl ..read more

The village of Cendi Manik is nestled on the southwest coast of Lombok, a stunning island in eastern Indonesia, situated just a few miles west of its more famous neighbour, Bali. Positioned in Selamat Bay near the Lombok-Bali ferry port, this village is highly susceptible to disasters owing to its proximity to the sea and an estuary. Historically, the village’s mangroves served as a natural buffer for it. However, widespread deforestation in pursuit of firewood and building materials led to a significant reduction in mangrove vegetation. The mangrove area, once spanning 15 hecta ..read more

PNG’s Independent Consumer and Competition Commission (ICCC) recently undertook a review of the stevedoring and handling market for shipping containers. Its report dated 4 December 2023 found that PNG’s domestic container handling market was competitive, and that there was no need for any intervention. However, in the international market, the situation is quite different. The multinational International Container Terminal Services Incorporated (ICTSI) is the sole operator for PNG’s two international wharves – Motukea in Port Moresby and Lae Tidal Basin. ICTSI has exclusive rights to operate b ..read more

As I said in my last post, wise political scientists avoid making predictions about elections in the Western Pacific. But I’ve just made myself a coffee, the fan in my office at the University of PNG is whirring happily and I have some data to reassure me. So I’m going to try and hazard a guess as to whether the current prime minister, Manasseh Sogavare, will be prime minister after the upcoming elections in Solomon Islands – after the voting and after the horse-trading between MPs which is central to how the country selects its leaders. To be very clear, particularly for readers from Solomon ..read more

You could forgive the average Solomon Islander for wondering whether the only thing that ever gets them attention is war. In World War II their forgotten outpost of the British Empire was engulfed in fighting. Aid and international attention was on the wane in the 1990s but this all changed when the Solomons burst into flames. And now there is the New Cold War, which has sent China, Australia and other western powers stumbling around the Pacific like drunken chess pieces. Right now, China and Australia are busy glowering, facing each other down in Solomon Islands. Amidst this standoff, Solomon ..read more