The fallout from Hamas’ Oct. 7 rampage through Israel and the March 22 massacre at Crocus City Hall near Moscow are dreadful reminders of the potential outsized effect of terrorist attacks. The most effective attacks provoke intense emotions, especially fear and paranoia, which can trigger dramatic changes in a country’s foreign and domestic policies. In […] The post How Different Countries Respond to Terrorism appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

At an economic forum last week in Shanghai, a senior Chinese government adviser named Liu Yuanchun, who is also the president of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, made some stark remarks about the state of the Chinese economy. Liu said that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were far worse than expected and that the fiscal standing of local governments is deteriorating quicker than thought. Seismic, structural shifts are happening rapidly, and more non-economic risks are emerging than economic ones. All of this has created imbalances that Beijing is struggling to navigate. Ac ..read more

(click to enlarge) Each year, the U.S. Coast Guard issues a report on port state control, the inspection of foreign ships in national ports. The purpose of inspections is to verify that vessels are in working order and compliant with international regulations. The U.S. Coast Guard screens vessels before they arrive at U.S. ports, checking things like the ship’s condition, its emergency and safety management systems, and documentation. In some cases, the Coast Guard detains the ship, most often because of accumulations of oil in the engine room and other maintenance issues. This year’s report i ..read more

Retaliation. Israel launched an airstrike on Iran early Friday morning in response to Iran’s attack on Israeli targets on April 14. An Iranian air base near the city of Isfahan was reportedly hit. Though Isfahan is home to multiple nuclear sites, Iranian media reported that they are all safe. Iranian officials and press seemed to […] The post Daily Memo: Strike on Iran, Security Concerns in Russia appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

In mid-April, China’s People’s Liberation Army conducted live-fire drills along its southern border – the second of its kind this month – amid deteriorating security in Myanmar. The exercises come as the PLA Daily published an article saying the war there has threatened security and stability in the border region and stressing that the PLA […] The post In Myanmar, China Considers a New Strategy appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

Talks with Hamas. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held a nearly three-hour meeting with Hamas representatives, including leader Ismail Haniyeh, in Qatar on Wednesday, Fidan said at a joint press conference with the Qatari foreign minister. He added that they had an intense exchange of views on Hamas’ position on a cease-fire in Gaza. He […] The post Daily Memo: Turkish Mediation, Ukrainian Mobilization appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

The partnership comprising Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States known as AUKUS is intended to be among the most closely integrated national security alliances of its kind. It’s no surprise, then, that when the U.S. ambassador to Tokyo floated the idea last week of adding Japan to the grouping, it caused quite a […] The post Is Japan the Next AUKUS Member? appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

The biggest question facing Mexico in the upcoming presidential election is how the country can balance democratic governance while also supporting strong centralized authority. The two leading candidates in the race represent opposite sides in this debate. The approach that prevails on June 2 will serve as the cornerstone of the administration and will shape […] The post In Upcoming Elections, Mexico Weighs Its Political Future appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

Economic retaliation. One day after an unprecedented drone and missile attack against Israel, Iran’s president called on government departments to redouble their efforts and coordination to stop Israel from undermining the Iranian economy. Over the course of five hours on Saturday night, Iran fired more than 300 munitions at Israel, most of them from Iranian […] The post Daily Memo: Iran Preps for Economic Retaliation, China Stands With North Korea appeared first on Geopolitical Futures ..read more

The U.S. has adopted a national strategy designed to use force without risking casualties of its own. This strategy has been on full display in Ukraine, where Washington has played a significant and perhaps decisive role not by committing troops but by arming Ukrainian forces with weapons, using political signals and the potential of increased military presence to try to shape Russian action. The policy stands in stark contrast to the one adopted in Vietnam, where the U.S. absorbed massive casualties and incurred severe political repercussions domestically. The policies during operations in Ir ..read more