March Quarterly Option Expiration Weeks have historically leaned bullish. S&P 500 has been up 27 times in the last 42 years while NASDAQ has advanced 25 times. More recently, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have both advanced 12 times in the last 17 weeks. But the week after is the exact opposite, S&P down 27 of the last 42 years—and frequently down sharply. In 2018, S&P fell –5.95% and NASDAQ dropped 6.54%. Notable gains during the week after for S&P of 4.30% in 2000, 3.54% in 2007, 6.17% in 2009, and 10.26% in 2020 appear to be rare exceptions to this historically poorly performing w ..read more

Just launched my brand new podcast. Check out the first episode w/my old friend & mentor legendary trader Larry Williams. https://youtu.be/c6f-SSCaOhE?si=mazqz2RP0LIJtEaq ..read more

Céad Míle Fáilte! After a challenging first half of March, the market could sure use some good luck to have any chance at a full-month gain. Saint Patrick’s Day is the only cultural event that perennially lands in March. Since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 0.27% on Saint Patrick’s Day (or the next trading day when it falls on a weekend), a gain of 0.07% the day after and the day before averages a 0.11% advance. More recently since 1994, Saint Patrick’s Day market performance has been improving. S&P 500 has been up 23 times in 31 years with an average gain of 0.70%. In the ..read more

Click here to view table full size… President Trump’s fast and furious pace of change to kick off his second term has created a great deal of uncertainty. Historically, the market has not performed well during periods of uncertainty. Monday, March 10, marked the seven weeks since Inauguration Day and as of the close S&P 500 was down 6.37%, its fourth worst post inaugural performance since 1945. Presidents Obama (2009), W. Bush (2001) and Ford (1974) suffered greater declines through the seventh week. In the above table we have included the S&P 500’s performance every Inauguration Day ..read more

Stormy March markets have battered stocks lower in the first half of the month in recent years. Named after Mars, the Roman god of war, the third month of the year often serves as a battleground for bulls and bears. Julius Caesar may not have heeded the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March,” but perhaps the bears should take heed this year, at least for a bounce. Several key technical levels have been breached which unfortunately brings support around the September lows and last March’s highs in the 5300-5400 area into play. But a near term bounce is setting up for later this week or e ..read more

Following up on Tuesday’s post with a deeper look from our member’s webinar yesterday into post-election year performance under new republican administration. Looks like President Trump is taking a page out of our 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac 4-year cycle playbook. Updated chart highlights detail of the republican admins from table on page 28 ..read more

The fear on The Street is palpable and it’s hitting levels associated with interim lows and rebounds. We have warned all year that this type of chop and volatility is to be expected in post-election years, especially in Q1. With the S&P 500 dipping further into the red for the year, we turn to page 28 of the 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac, “Post-Election Year Performance by Party.” Historically, more bear markets and negative market action have plagued Republican administrations in the post-election year whereas the midterm year has been worse for Democrats. New republican administrations te ..read more

First trading days of months have a bullish reputation and March is not an exception. Reviewing the last 25 years of data shows S&P 500 has the best record, advancing 68.0% of the time with an average gain of 0.36%. NASDAQ is second best with an impressive 0.65% average gain. Both NASDAQ and DJIA were up 64.0% of the time during the period. DJIA has been modestly softer with an average advance of 0.27%. March’s first trading day strength has not been limited to just the last 25 years. Since 1950, DJIA has advanced 51 times in 75 years (68.0%) with an average gain of 0.23%. S&P 500 was ..read more

Rather turbulent in recent years with wild fluctuations and large gains and losses, March has been taking some mean end-of-quarter hits. In post-election years since 1950, March has tended to open strongly, and strength has generally persisted until shortly after mid-month (dashed arrow below). At which point, the major indexes lost momentum and closed out March with some choppy trading. Whereas over the recent 21 years March has trended lower through mid-month then rallied in the second half. March packs a rather busy docket. It is the end of the first quarter, which brings with it quarterly ..read more

As part of the Best Six/Eight Months, March has historically been a respectable performing month with DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000, advancing more than 64% of the time with average gains ranging from 0.7% by Russell 2000 to 1.1% by S&P 500. Post-election year payments to the Piper have exacted a toll on March as average gains are trimmed. (see Vital Statistics table below). In post-election years March ranks: #7 for DJIA and S&P 500; # 8 for Russell 1000 and Russell 2000; and #9 for NASDAQ. NASDAQ also has the largest change in its average performance, dropping ..read more