Big Election Year Q1s Dip April-May Before Gains Last 7 Months
StockTrader'sAlmanac
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4d ago
2024’s great start was the third best Election Year Q1 since 1950. Looks like we’re tracking Top Q1 Election Years more pronounced April-May dip. Chop continues in July and August and these years have marked time until the election in November, gaining about 2.5% on from April to October. Regardless of the election outcome S&P 500 suffered only two losses in the last seven months of election years since 1950, 2000 and 2008 (2024 STA page 80 ..read more
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Election Year Drawdowns Happen – S&P 500 Average Pullback 13% since 1952
StockTrader'sAlmanac
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5d ago
After five straight months of gains and numerous new all-time highs, recent weakness and the corresponding spike in volatility seem unfamiliar. Despite lingering inflation and escalating geopolitical tensions, S&P 500 was down 3.86% from its closing all-time high of 5254.35 on March 28 through its close on April 16. This is well below the average historical largest drawdown during an election year since 1952 of 13.07%. Were it not for steep declines in 2020 and 2008, election years have tended to enjoy relatively modest drawdowns. Of the last 18 election years, 11 experienced single-digit ..read more
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April 2 Seasonal MACD Signal Triggered Right on Time
StockTrader'sAlmanac
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6d ago
We issued our Best Six Months MACD Seasonal Sell signal for DJIA and S&P 500 to newsletter subscribers on April 2 when slower moving MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both turned negative after the start of the last month of the BSMs. This marked the start of our transition to a more cautious stance. Arrows in the charts point to a crossover or negative histogram on the slower moving MACD used by our Seasonal Switching Strategy to issue a sell signal. NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” lasts until June. Subscribe to our Almanac Investor Newsletter and get all our trades. https://s ..read more
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April Monthly Option Expiration Week - DJIA Up 33 of Last 42
StockTrader'sAlmanac
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1w ago
April’s monthly option expiration is generally bullish across the board with respectable gains on the last day of the week, the entire week, and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 27 times in 42 years on expiration day with average gains of 0.22% and 0.17%, respectively. Monthly expiration day was staging a comeback after four or five declines from 2014 to 2018 but took a hit in 2022’s bear market. Expiration week has a bullish track record over the past 42 years. Average weekly gains are right around 1% for S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ. The bullish bias of Ap ..read more
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April Ends Best Six Months #1 DJIA
StockTrader'sAlmanac
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2w ago
April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. April is #1 DJIA month by average performance since 1950, 2nd best S&P 500 month and 4th best NASDAQ (since 1971).  In election years, performance and rank softens slightly, 3rd best DJIA and S&P 500 month, 6th for NASDAQ, but remains bullish. April is the last month of DJIA and S&P 500 “Best Six Months.” NASDAQ’s Best Months run through June. Election Year Aprils are up 1.3% on average for S&P 500 ..read more
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Super Boom Spring Break Easter Sale!
StockTrader'sAlmanac
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3w ago
Few at Dow 10,000 believed me in May 2010 when I forecasted a 500+% market rise that would put DJIA at 38,820 by the year 2025 in my Almanac Investor Newsletter. My 2011 book Super Boom took a deeper dive into the history and analysis of this groundbreaking forecast and the iconic market cycle and pattern that it’s based on. Now that Dow 38,820 has come true, what’s next? AI is clearly the culturally enabling, paradigm-shifting technology I predicted would drive the next phase of this generational Super Boom. Come find out what I expect to happen next. Get my latest outlook on how and why the ..read more
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Good Friday Boosts End Q1 But Weakens Q2 Start
StockTrader'sAlmanac
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3w ago
Over the past 34 years since 1990 the last trading day of Q1 has been plagued by end-of-quarter portfolio restructuring. DJIA is down 21 of 34 with an average loss of –0.24%. S&P is down 19 of 34 with an average loss of –0.04%. NASDAQ is up 20 of 34 with an average gain of 0.21%. Russell 2000 is up 25 of 34 with an average gain of 0.32%. When the day before the Good Friday market holiday is the last trading day of Q1 it’s a boost. DJIA is up 7 of 10, average 0.18%. S&P is up 7 of 10, average 0.29%. NASDAQ is up 6 of 8, average 0.51%. Russell 2000 is up 6 of 7, average 0.47%. First tra ..read more
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Market Historically Strong Ahead of Good Friday
StockTrader'sAlmanac
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1M ago
Good Friday is the one NYSE holiday with a clear positive bias before and negativity the day after (Stock Trader’s Almanac 2024, page 100). DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 all have solid average gains on the three days and full week (shortened) before Good Friday. NASDAQ has been notably strong, up 21 of the last 23 days before Good Friday with an average gain of 0.79%. NASDAQ declines occurred in 2017 (–0.53%) and 2022 (–2.14%). However, the day after Easter has a weak longer-term post-holiday record. The S&P 500 was down 16 of 20 years from 1984-2003 on the day after Easter ..read more
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5-Month Streak Looks Like A Secular Bull Market
StockTrader'sAlmanac
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1M ago
Not only is it bullish for April and the rest of the year. When November, December, January, February and March are up stocks have been in a secular bull market that extended to at least the next year. Note a touch of weakness in Q2-Q3 in the Worst Six Months and some huge Q4 rallies. Last 9 months of the year up all 11 times, average gain 11.9 ..read more
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Best Six Months Ends in April
StockTrader'sAlmanac
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1M ago
After 5 months of solid gains, are markets ready for a pause? Bullish Presidential Cycle Sitting President Pattern flattens out the mid-February to late-March seasonal retreat considerably without 2020 in the average. April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through (March 21, 2024), DJIA is up 18.4% and S&P 500 is up 20.9%. Fueled by interest rate cut expectations and AI speculation, these gains are approximately double the historical average already and could continue to increase before the “Best ..read more
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