Report from AEMO (AEMO=Australian Energy Market Operator) on East Coast gas supplies: 21 Mar 2024 AEMO’s latest gas market outlook for Australia’s east coast has forecast a gap in gas supply for southern states from 2028, as production from Bass Strait continues to decline faster than demand. The report signals that new investment is urgently needed if gas supply from 2028 is to keep up with demand from homes and businesses, and for gas-powered electricity generation. It also highlights risks of peak-day shortfalls on some days under extreme winter conditions from 2025 and the potential for sm ..read more

Continuous power price spikes on hot summer day in NSW – yet again. Fig 1: Temperatures in NSW on 29 Feb 2024 (ABC News/BOM) Fig 2: Temperatures in Sydney on 29 Feb 2014 (ABC News, BOM) The public is well informed about heatwaves but not about day to day power supplies. Fig 3: NSW power generation by fuel on 29 Feb 2024 https://opennem.org.au/energy/nsw1/?range=1d&interval=30m&view=discrete-time Note: 1) Very little wind as is usual on sticky summer days 2) Problem is during and after sunset 3) Hydro and gas come to the rescue while…. 4) Coal is maxed out (as happened in the past many ..read more

One of the biggest dangers is that military conflicts in the Middle East turn into a tanker war. Marlin Luanda with Russian (!!) Naphtha for Singapore hit by missile and on fire south of Aden 26 Jan 2024 Tanker trackers https://twitter.com/TankerTrackers/status/1751214167413961138 What’s going on with shipping? https://twitter.com/mercoglianos/status/1750998719905030579 So it is again time to look at Australian petroleum imports, which depend on Singapore but also other Asian countries. In the last 12 months to November 2023 (the latest statistics) Australia imported jet fuel to the value of 6 ..read more

This is the continuation of part 1 on lack of reserves in NSW on 14 Dec 2023  https://crudeoilpeak.info/how-close-did-nsw-come-to-load-shedding-on-14-dec-2023-part-1 which culminated in: Fig 20: Actual LOR2 notice This meant that eg. the failure of one of the Eraring units (to be retired in 2025) would have required load shedding of 690-678=12 MW Power imports/exports Let’s stack the generation from the graphs/tables in part 1 and compare it to demand: Fig 21: Components of generation vs market demand Data from AEMO’s demand and price dashboard The semi-scheduled generation includes wind ..read more

Tight power supplies in NSW 14 Dec 2013 Fig 1: Warning to reduce electricity use A severe early summer heatwave across New South Wales is bringing the hottest weather since 2020 to many parts of the state. Prelude Sat 9 Dec 2023 The heatwave had started Fig 2: Temperatures in NSW 9th December 2023 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-08/sydney-weather-heatwave-for-saturday-in-nsw/103203370 On that day there was an actual lack of reserves LOR1 notice at 5:16 pm (#112137) which ended at 6:50 pm (#112154). Lucky it was a Saturday when power consumption is lower than on a weekday. 11 Dec 2023 Unit ..read more

Guided-missile destroyer USS Mason (DDG-87) 26 Nov 23 “Following the detentions, Houthi forces fired two short-range ballistic missiles at Mason and the tanker, according to CENTCOM. At approximately 0141 on Nov. 27 Sanaa time, two ballistic missiles were fired from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen toward the general location of USS Mason (DDG-87) and M/V Central Park. The missiles landed in the Gulf of Aden approximately ten nautical miles from the ships. USS Mason, which is part of the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, was concluding its response to the M/V Central Park distress cal ..read more

The Hamas attack on Israel on 7 Oct 2023 was reminiscent of the 1973 Yom Kippur war which triggered the 1st oil crisis (see Appendix) after OPEC imposed an oil embargo on the US and some Western countries for assisting Israel in that war. The embargo was successful because the US oil production had peaked in 1970. Although (unconventional, light) shale oil turned the situation for the US, many other countries have peaked in the meantime and now the global supply system is at peak. Fig 1: World crude production by May 2023 Iran called on Islamic countries to impose an oil embargo on Israel but ..read more

The Energy Institute published its first Statistical Review on 25 June 2023, thereby replacing the BP Statistical Review https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review Let’s have a look at oil production and consumption in South East Asia and India. After all, this is one of the key regions in the world where perpetual growth is expected. Fig 1: Oil production peaked in 2000 This peak year came about by a production spike in Australia which peaked in that year. Without Australia we observe a bumpy production plateau between 1995 and 2016 (20 years). Annual decline rates in the last 3 years hav ..read more

No sooner have passenger numbers picked up after 2 ½ years of disruptions by the Wuhan virus, Fig 1: Sydney Airport passenger numbers https://www.sydneyairport.com.au/corporate/media/corporate-newsroom/sydney-airport-traffic-performance-february-2023 did Australia’s jet fuel imports from China surge: Fig 2: Monthly jet fuel imports from China Fig 3: China is in peak oil mode since 2015 China’s crude production is basically stagnating around 4 mb/d since 2009/10 when crude oil imports started to skyrocket, pushing up oil prices. Australia imports jet fuel from Taiwan, too: Fig 4: Monthly jet fu ..read more

This is part 3 of the series “Can NSW replace Liddell?” The 16th of March 2023 was the 2nd hottest day in a late summer in NSW. Fig 1: Temperatures in Sydney in March 2023 At 5:31 pm the Australian Energy Market Operator AEMO had to issue a RERT direction (market notice 106711 16/3/2023 5:31 pm), the last procedural step before load shedding. RERT=Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader. Fig 2: Power generation in NSW 15-17 Mar 2023 Fig 3: AEMO direction 106711 to supply power https://nemweb.com.au/Reports/Current/Market_Notice/NEMITWEB1_MKTNOTICE_20230316.R106711 The following table shows th ..read more