If anyone knows league of legends I'm talking about MSI currently going on. There are 6 different types of elemental dragon themed maps that can appear in this esport. They all have an equal chance to appear, 1/6, once per game. The outcomes were 21, 14, 13, 9, 5, 5 times each one appeared in 67 games total. How do I calculate something useful to see how likely a result like this is to happen? I found something called a multinomial distribution but I plugged in the numbers here https://www.statology.org/multinomial-distribution-calculator/ and the probability came out to 0 to 6 decimal places ..read more

There’s a wheel at this bar I’m at. The wheel has 8 tiles, 4 of which are prizes, 2 of which are nothing and 2 are spin again. How are the probabilities of losing/winning different from having a wheel with 6 tiles that have no “spin again”? submitted by /u/SeaworthinessAny269 [visit reddit] [comments ..read more

Find the probability of a random number selected from the set of 5 digit numbers formed by the digits 2,3,4,5,6,7,8 ( repetition is allowed) is divisible by 3. ( for eg. 33333 is divisible by 3 whereas 33433 is not) The solution provided has something to do with removing 8, first from unit's digits then from ten's digit and so on and the final statement in the solution is that if we remove 888888 from the set then 1/3rd of the remaining numbers are divisible by 3 and the ans is (7^5-1)/[(3)*(7)^5]. Along with the method u propose plz help with with this method too.. submitted by /u/killua666 ..read more

Suppose you have 33% to get 0(fail) and a 67% chance to get 1 but if you succeed( roll 1) you get to roll again if you fail(roll 0) the process stops. What is the expected value/number of rolls after several rolls. e.g. if you can roll a maximum of five consecutive times . What number of successes would you have. e.g. First roll you have about 2/3 of gaining a coin. If that worked you have again 2/3 to gain another coin but there's a limit on rerolls. What number of coins would you expect if you repeat this process a few times I would think you would get an average value of (2/3) + (2/3)(1/3 ..read more

Let's say you have two hypothetical sports teams. Team A has played 100 games against opponents of various strengths and has won 70/100. Team B has played 100 games against opponents of various strengths, too, and has won 60/100. For the sake of keeping things simple, let's say that we use this 100 game sample size to conclude that Team A has a 70% probability to win against an average opponent, and Team B has a 60% probability to win against an average opponent. If Team A were to face off against Team B, what is the probability that Team A wins? Surely Team A would be likely to win, since th ..read more

Hi everyone! If you are given an unfair coin with probability of flipping heads p, probability of flipping tails 1-p, and 15 coin flips (for example: HTHTTTTTTHHTTHT), what steps would you take to approximate the unfair coin's probabilities. I have considered using MLE or a beta distribution but I'm not sure which would be more applicable. It's fine for the approximation to be relatively inaccurate given we only have 15 flips. I'm curious about still which approach would be best, or if there's something else that would be better. submitted by /u/Coffi3nd [visit reddit] [comments ..read more

If I take out 6 balls at random, what is the chance that the white ball will be one of them? submitted by /u/MimikyuIsHot [visit reddit] [comments ..read more

I’m currently taking a class on stochastic models and this week we covered Wiener processes/Brownian motion. When proving W_t has a Gaussian distribution my professor made this argument: we first show that W_t can be expressed as a sum of arbitrarily many i.i.d. random variables. We then write W_t as a sum of n such variables and take the limit as n goes to infinity, and Central Limit Theorem implies that W_t must be Gaussian. But this got me thinking; if W_t is a sum of infinitely many i.i.d. variables, why must it be Gaussian and not any other infinitely divisible random variable? We did no ..read more

I have a random damaged sword. The damage of each swing is independent and uniformly distributed between [0,100]. The average(expected) swing needed to kill a Dragon is 2. How many health does a Dragon have? submitted by /u/ibnc [visit reddit] [comments ..read more

What is the chance of not grabbing one particular ball out of 8 billion if you do it 1000 times in a row. In this situation a ball is removed from the pile every time you grab one so the chance slightly goes up. submitted by /u/Causticyt [visit reddit] [comments ..read more