The Australian dollar has posted four straight winning sessions this week and is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6534, up 0.24%. The Aussie has powered higher this week, climbing 1.82%. Australia’s PPI blows past estimate Australia’s Producer Prices index jumped 4.3% y/y in the first quarter, up from 4.1% in Q4 2023 and crushing the market estimate of 2.6%. Quarterly, PPI was unchanged at 0.6%, above the market estimate of 0.6%. The unexpectedly strong PPI release follows the first-quarter CPI report, in which annual CPI dropped in April from ..read more

The Swiss franc is steady on Friday. In the European session, USD/CHF is almost unchanged at 0.9118. It has been quite a ride for the Swiss franc, which hit eight-year highs against the US dollar in the last week of 2023. The US dollar has roared back in 2024, surging 8.2% against the Swiss currency. The sharp depreciation of the Swiss franc has not been an unwelcome development for the Swiss National Bank, as it makes Swiss exports more competitive on world markets. The SNB didn’t mind when the Swiss franc was at high levels late last year, as this helped keep inflation in check at a time wh ..read more

Tokyo’s core-core inflation for April came in at 1.8% y/y, its slowest pace of increase since September 2022 & below BoJ’s inflation target of 2%. The latest set of softer-than-expected Tokyo’s CPI may push back the timing of the next BoJ’s interest rate hike. Widening of US Treasuries-JGBs yield spread premium is likely to support a further potential upmove in the USD/JPY. The current upmove in USD/JPY since mid-March 2024 has been accompanied by a lower volatility condition versus its more abrupt rallies seen from July 2022 to September 2022 that triggered the actual FX intervention fr ..read more

The British is in positive territory on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2492, up 0.23%. US GDP slows to 1.6% Is the US economy finally slowing down? Recent key indicators, from nonfarm payrolls to consumer inflation have been stronger than expected, but the markets could hear the “thud” of today’s initial GDP for the first quarter, which at 1.6% y/y missed the market estimate of 2.5% and was sharply lower the Q4 2023 reading of 3.4%. Consumer spending slipped to 2.5%, down from 3.4% in Q 2023. Meanwhile, there was bad news on the inflation front, as the person ..read more

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Thursday. In the European session USD/JPY is trading at 155.61, up 0.17%. Earlier, the yen dropped to a 34-year low of 155.74. Friday will be a busy day out of Japan. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes food, is a key leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends. It is expected to drop to 2.2% in April, down from 2.4% in March. The Tokyo core-core rate, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to fall, from 2.9% in March to 2.7% in April. The March reading marked the first time that the core-core rate fell below 3% since November 2022. Infla ..read more

The euro has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0726, up 0.25%. German consumer confidence hits two-year high Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate index improved in April and again in the May forecast, as the German consumer is showing signs of optimism. The index improved to a revised -27.3 in April, up from -28.8 in March and is expected to rise to -24.2 in the May forecast, above the market estimate of -25.9. The May reading marks a two-year high but let’s not forget that consumer confidence remains deep in negative (pessimistic) territory. Consumer income ..read more

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday after a five-day winning streak in which it gained 1.1%. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3703, up 0.29%. Canada’s retail sales down in February Canadian consumers are holding tight on the purse strings as spending has been weak in the first quarter. In February, retail sales contracted by 0.1%, after a 0.3% decline in January and shy of the market estimate of 0.1%. The preliminary reading for March retail sales came in at unchanged. On an annualized basis, retail sales rose 1.2% in February, up from the revised 0 ..read more

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.27%. The Australian dollar rose as high as 0.6529 (0.64%) after the Australian inflation release but has pared about half of those gains. Australia’s inflation dips less than forecast Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in the first quarter. Inflation rose 3.6% y/y in Q1, down sharply from 4.1% in the fourth quarter but above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the lowest rate since Q4 2024 and the drop was widespread across most components of inflation. Inflatio ..read more

The euro is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0685, down 0.16%. German shows signs of optimism Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index rose to 89.4 in April, up from a revised 87.9 in March and above the market estimate of 88.9. The index is still in negative territory (100 separates pessimism from optimism) but there are signs of optimism that the eurozone’s largest economy may have bottomed out. The reading marked a third straight increase, which in the past has indicated that the German economy has turned a corner. Business confidence is now at its ..read more

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain” published on 15 April 2024. Click here for a recap. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have shaped the mean reversion decline after a test on the US$2,420 intermediate resistance. It tumbled by -2.7% on Monday, 22 April, its worst daily performance since 13 June 2022 (almost two years), and continued to extend its losses in yesterday’s (23 April) Asian session. So far, it has recorded an accumulated loss of -5.8% from its recent fresh all-time high of US$2,431 print ..read more