Fractal self-assembly and self ordering of asset valuations, traded daily (or five times a week), occur in combinations of three and four phase mathematical fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x and x/2-2.5x/1.5x-2.5x, where x denote a fractal time unit in days, weeks, months, and years. An alternative 149-150 day DAX 17 January 2024 second fractal decay model of the 23 October 2023 60/125 day of 126 to 150 day first and second fractal series has no flash crash, rather a 14 July 2024 6/12/9-10 day :: x/2x/1.5-1.6x decay series ending 15-16 August 2024. The current model for the DAX and ..read more

The 1982 -2024 German DAX 13-14/30-31 year First and Second Fractals Within the 4-phase 267 year 1807 to 2074 US hegemonic x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 36/90/90/54 year fractal series, rests an interpolated 1982 German DAX 13-14/30-31 year series. The 30 year second fractal nonlinearity could as an incipient feature have an initial shocking flash crash (with a sharp rebound beyond the November 2024 election. The self-assembly fractal mathematical architecture of the 23 October 2023 to 5 July 2024 x/2x :: 13(-)/25-26 week :: 60/120 day fractal series is observable. Rather than 28 October 2023, the I ..read more

For the SPX Friday 28 June 2024 meets the criteria for a peak (bearish) Key Reversal Day: ‘Key Reversal Day: In a bearish key reversal the market OPENS above the prior close, often leaving a gap, sets a new high, and then closes the day lower than the prior day’s close.’ A two day chart from 27 and 28 June 2024 is shown for the SPX below. 28 June 2024 for the SPX represents year 31 of a 13/31-33 year 1982 first and second fractal series. As an update from the second picture below 28 June represents the 121 quarter of a 49-50/123-125 quarter first and second fractal series For the SPX 28 J ..read more

Second Fractal Nonlinearity Why did significant one day crashes occur on 19 Oct 1987 and on 6 May 2010? What news precipitated these events? The explanation of Fractal Macroeconomics is that both occurred in the terminal 2x to 2.5x window of second fractals, when nonlinear price devaluations can occur in saturated oversold markets. 1929 to 1932 occurred at the end of a US hegemonic 90 year second fractal occurring as a 36/90 year series starting in 1807. Currently, this is year 31 of a 13/31-33 year 1982 first and second fractal series and day 113-114 (for the SPX and DAX respectively) of a ..read more

Interpolated within the US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54 year X/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series, is an expected 1982 13/32 year second fractal nonlinear crash. The US ten year note has been inverted with the 3 month treasury for 570 days close to the 600 days in 1928 and 1929. A major recession is on the horizon. Gold in USD has reached a March 2001 51/128/102 month :: x/2.5x/2x perfect growth fractal. So much distortion of normal money expansion and debt expansion was caused by the 2020 global central banking QE/money printing response to the world-wide pandemic. Over two years 4.7 trillion dol ..read more

In the asset debt macroeconomic system what is the worst bubble element – an asset overproduction bubble or an unsustainable debt overproduction bubble? While the two elements are closely linked, each of two might be individually be assessed for comparison at peak system valuation of commodities and equities at the height of prior asset peak valuations :1637, 1720, 1929, 2000, 2008, 2020 and now in 2024. Qualitatively of these climax years 2024 is arguably the worst of both global overproduction of assets and overproduction of unsustainable debt. China, the second leading economy, has a colla ..read more

Since 2001 US asset prices have been pushed by debt expansion to what would currently appear to be a limit. The Federal Reserve inflated residential prices by over 14 trillion dollars with between March of 2020 and March 2022 with Federal Reserve MBS’s and 2.5-3.5 % inflation rates. Blue collar and US service workers have been priced out of the American dream. Under the umbrella of US debt expansion, Chinese property overvaluation, and a US service sector based economy encumbered with debt, gold in US dollars has progressed in a x/2.5x/2x :: 51/127/102 monthly fractal fashion since 2001, pe ..read more

1 May 2024: The March 2020 to April 2024 Global Equity 8/24/20 Month Fractal Growth Series; Why the 24 Month Second Fractal Had An Extended length: A 1929-like Three Phase Series Daily Fractal Collapse Ongoing and Ahead? Historically large US annual percentage deficit federal spending /GDP ratios in 2020 and 2021 caused a prolonged 24 month second fractal in the March 2020 to April 2024 8/24/20 month three phase QE/QT three phase fractal growth series for global equities. The annual new US debt/GDP deficit ratio in 1942 post Pearl Harbor was 13.88%. This was only exceeded in 1943-45 until Pres ..read more

US March 2020 to March 2024 Unprecedented QE followed by Unprecedented QT In early 2020 at the beginning and during the more lethal  covid variant phases, the Central Bank and governmental response of unprecedented QE/low interest rate/MBS/money creation and distribution   resulted in historical price inflation and misallocation of bank lending for speculative enterprises. The central bank then pivoted to an unprecedented acceleration of QT, shearing bond holders and causing Silicon Valley, Signature, First Republic and Heartland bank failures in 2023. These banks had the&n ..read more

March 2020 Peak Lammert Fractal Growth and the Great 1982 13/31-32 Year Crash From March 2020 the fractal math for the maximum time based self-assembly  fractal growth for equities is quite simple :  X/2.5X/2.5X , where X is the time length of  the First Fractal Base ending in a low valuation (30 October 2020), 2.5X is the time length of the Second Fractal ending in a low valuation (16/17 June 2022), and 2.5X is the time length of the Third Fractal ending in a peak valuation. (12/13 February 2024) First Fractal: X: 35 weeks: 23 March 2020 to 30 October 2020 (3)/33 weeks {t ..read more