The Economic Fractalist

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Non-Stochastic Saturation Macroeconomics. Welcome to the small alcove for the advancement of cause and effect saturation macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market valuations and economic cycles is both causal and quantitatively decipherable.

The Economic Fractalist

2w ago

The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic system is deterministic in its time-based fractal self assembly of its composite asset valuation growth and decay.
There are two observable time based self-ordering simple mathematical fractal series: a 3 phase fractal series of x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x and a 4 phase fractal series of x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x. The fractal subunits are defined by nadir valuations with the exception of the 4 phase fractal series whose 3 subunit terminus is defined by a peak valuation or lower high valuation.
For the US Hegemony, a 4 phase long term fractal series undergoing self-assembly ..read more

The Economic Fractalist

3w ago

There is a mathematical fractal case for an interpolated 1981-82 13/30 year first 13 year base fractal and 30 year second fractal major terminal nonlinearity. This interpolated series is contained within a larger US hegemonic 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series with lows in 1807, 1842-43, 1932, and 2074 and a 90 year third fractal high in November 2021.
Both the French CAC and Wilshire are following a x/2.5x/2x/1.5x :: 15/37/30/22 day fractal series starting 12/30/2022 and 12/28/2022 (trading holidays account for the difference of starting dates.) The CAC reached its all ..read more

The Economic Fractalist

1M ago

Over the next 3 weeks and 15 trading days, basic use and precious metal commodity prices, cryptocurrencies, and global equities will undergo a severe crash devaluation reflecting both the historical money supply increase in the covid QE period and the subsequent consumer inflation central bank QT response with historical draconian money supply contraction. Only in the 1930s has money contraction occurred to this degree.
An average total asset growth and decay series from the March 2020 low of 28/70/67 of 70/42 weeks :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x is undergoing self-assembly.
This will complete the firs ..read more

The Economic Fractalist

1M ago

Every individual asset class including commodes and cryptocurrencies can be thought of as being denominated in the total valuation of all (global)assets. When stock valuations decline, bonds lose book value, or debt is defaulted, the total global valuation is diminished. Two to ten year US Treasury yield inversion is the hallmark of Federal Reserve credit tightening and has preceded recessions in 1972-4, 1980-2, 1990-91, 2001, 2007-2009, and 2019-20. This time is different, a much greater % to total debt to GDP exist and a colossal quantitative amount of bad debt needs to be liquidated. The Z ..read more

The Economic Fractalist

1M ago

The French CAC represents the leading edge of the March 2020 Global Asset-Debt Macroeconomy. Unlike other countries, France adopted nuclear energy policy which provides 70 % of its national energy. unlike other western countries France’s consumer inflation problem peaked earlier this year at less than 6 percent because of its energy choices.
The French equity curve is following a March 2020 33/72/58 peak valuation with a gapped blow-off on 14 April 2023, representing the 58 week 3rd fractal.
This pattern is the identical to the Nikkei’s, whose 58 week lower high lower valuation is secondary t ..read more

The Economic Fractalist

1M ago

Saturation Macroeconomics
An interpolated 30 January 2023 10/23/23 day 3-phase fractal decay series is a replica replay of the August 1929 series of 11/26/28 days.
Qualitaive:
The qualitative correcting force for the macroeconomic system is the (absurd) unbalance between accumulative bad debt load which cannot be repaid and economic expansion derived from that bad debt in terms of new asset development, asset over valuation, asset overconsumption relative to wages and individual cumulative wealth, and job growth.
This is the force behind all historical equity and commodity corrections. Since ..read more

The Economic Fractalist

2M ago

This is an interpolated part of the 1807 36/90/90/54 year US hegemonic Macroeconomic Asset-Debt system.
This fractal pattern would be consistent with an equity 2 February 2023 peak valuation 9/21/21 day decay fractal and a 2 February 8+/20/21 day US debt instrument growth fractal (lower interest rates) as money flows from equities into US Debt instruments ..read more

The Economic Fractalist

2M ago

The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic system is deterministic and Its valuation growth and decay cycles are self-assembled in the most efficient manner and in highly ordered time-based fractal patterns.
The asset debt macroeconomic system’s two time based fractal patterns are a 3 phase cycle: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x and a 4 phase cycle: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5/1.4-1.6x.
Cycle lengths are determined by absolute or average valuation nadirs for a given time unit. The exception is the third subcycle (fractal) of the 4 phase cycle where the peak or lower high valuation de ..read more

The Economic Fractalist

2M ago

Updated Friday 17 March 0545 EST
The US hegemony is undergoing an 1807 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x Asset/Debt Macroeconomic Great Fractal Series ending in 2074 with nadir valuation lows in 1842/43, 1932, and 2074 and a 90 year third fractal high in November 2021.
The terminal 4 phase fractal daily series for an interpolated 1981/82 13/31-33 years first and second series began with the SPX/Wilshire average low valuation on 12 October 2022 and will end on 30 March 2023 with nonlinear lower low devaluations over the last days of next 10 trading days involving equities, commodities, gold ..read more

The Economic Fractalist

3M ago

The Asset Debt Macroeconomic System’s two observationally and empirically derived mathematical time-based self-assembly fractal time based growth and decay patterns are :
a Type 1 4-phase time based fractal pattern: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x with low nadir valuations ending and defining the first, second, and fourth sub-fractal and a high peak valuation ending and defining the third subfractal at 2-2.5x and
a Type 2 3-phase time-based fractal pattern: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x with low nadir valuations ending and defining all three sub fractals
The current mathemati ..read more