The 2001 to April 2024 Gold in USD 51/127/102 Month :: x/2.5x/2x Peak Fractal Growth Valuation.
The Economic Fractalist
by Gary Lammert
1w ago
Since 2001 US asset prices have been pushed by debt expansion to what would currently appear to be a limit. The Federal Reserve inflated residential prices by over 14 trillion dollars with between March of 2020 and March 2022 with Federal Reserve MBS’s and 2.5-3.5 % inflation rates. Blue collar and US service workers have been priced out of the American dream. Under the umbrella of US debt expansion, Chinese property overvaluation, and a US service sector based economy encumbered with debt, gold in US dollars has progressed in a x/2.5x/2x :: 51/127/102 monthly fractal fashion since 2001, pe ..read more
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1 May 2024: The March 2020 to April 2024 Global Equity 8/24/20 Month Fractal Growth Series; Why did the 24 Month Second Fractal Have An Extended Cycle Length beyond 2.5x?; An Ongoing 1929-Like Three Phase Series Daily Fractal Collapse ?
The Economic Fractalist
by Gary Lammert
3w ago
1 May 2024: The March 2020 to April 2024 Global Equity 8/24/20 Month Fractal Growth Series; Why the 24 Month Second Fractal Had An Extended length: A 1929-like Three Phase Series Daily Fractal Collapse Ongoing and Ahead? Historically large US annual percentage deficit federal spending /GDP ratios in 2020 and 2021 caused a prolonged 24 month second fractal in the March 2020 to April 2024 8/24/20 month three phase QE/QT three phase fractal growth series for global equities. The annual new US debt/GDP deficit ratio in 1942 post Pearl Harbor was 13.88%. This was only exceeded in 1943-45 until Pres ..read more
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The March 2020 Interpolated Nikkei and SPX 38/95/76 Week :: x/2.5x/2x Growth Fractal Series
The Economic Fractalist
by Gary Lammert
2M ago
US March 2020 to March 2024 Unprecedented QE followed by Unprecedented QT In early 2020 at the beginning and during the more lethal  covid variant phases, the Central Bank and governmental response of unprecedented QE/low interest rate/MBS/money creation and distribution   resulted in historical price inflation and misallocation of bank lending for speculative enterprises. The central bank then pivoted to an unprecedented acceleration of QT, shearing bond holders and causing Silicon Valley, Signature, First Republic and Heartland bank failures in 2023. These banks had the&n ..read more
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SPX Maximum Self-Assembly Lammert Fractal Growth: X/2.5X/2.5X :: 35/86/88 Weeks – March 2020 to 12/13 February 2024
The Economic Fractalist
by Gary Lammert
3M ago
March 2020 Peak Lammert Fractal Growth and the Great 1982 13/31-32 Year Crash From March 2020 the fractal math for the maximum time based self-assembly  fractal growth for equities is quite simple :  X/2.5X/2.5X , where X is the time length of  the First Fractal Base ending in a low valuation (30 October 2020), 2.5X is the time length of the Second Fractal ending in a low valuation (16/17 June 2022), and 2.5X is the time length of the Third Fractal ending in a peak valuation. (12/13 February 2024) First Fractal: X: 35 weeks: 23 March 2020 to 30 October 2020 (3)/33 weeks {t ..read more
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The Great 1982 13/31 of 31-32 Year Second Fractal 2024-25 US Wilshire Crash
The Economic Fractalist
by Gary Lammert
4M ago
As part of a 1807 US hegemony x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x :: 36/90/90/54 year great fractal progression with nadirs in 1842/43 and 1932, and a peak valuation in November 2021, the valuation of the US progenitor and composite Wilshire has risen with post World War II US global money/credit expansion and with initially its enormous geopolitical and manufacturing dominance. Since the Volcker US peak interest rates in 1982, the Wilshire has been propelled by money and debt expansion from both the gradual 45 year lowering of US (and global) interest rates and later from direct central bank creation and owners ..read more
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New Target for Global Crash Low: 8 December 2023
The Economic Fractalist
by Gary Lammert
6M ago
US long term debt instruments reached an inter-day low of 0.4 pc on 9 March 2020 and have risen to a high of 4.997 pc on 23 October 2023. The US central bank is simply allowing supply and demand market forces to apply QT to an overheated economy fueled by printed money, 2 plus trillion dollars of covid savings, and covid forbearance of payments on US MBS related mortgages and US-lended college debt. Covid savings and easy forbearances on debt payments are expiring or have expired. Outstanding credit card debt, subprime automobile debt, and student loan debt make it difficult for further privat ..read more
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New Target Date for November 2023 crash low: 29 November 2023 day 130 of a 13 March 2023 52/130 day :: x/2.5x fractal series
The Economic Fractalist
by Gary Lammert
6M ago
The 14 day valuation gain from the 27 October 2023 low was unexpected but within the 13 March 2023 52 /104 to 130 day :: x/2x-2.5x nonlinear window. Qualitatively, the dominant service sector US economy has an operational consumer population that has no savings and has the highest ever collective debt at the highest interest rates in over 15 years. The consumer is tapped out. The Chinese economy whose base population savings is in real estate has a different, but real problem with the collapse of property and real estate prices and a collapse of stock valuations of the large corporations, e.g ..read more
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Lammert Saturation Asset-Debt Macroeconomics: The Current November 2023 Crash Low Valuation for … the Wilshire Composite, the Bank of Shanghai, Oil, Gold, and Crypto is … 21 November 2023
The Economic Fractalist
by Gary Lammert
6M ago
All of the above asset classes – and the inverse for sovereign debt interests, i.e., interest rates have a major interim low ending 21 November 2023.  Will the crash devaluation for the above assets  be 5, 10, 15, 20, 25%. or more from their current Sunday 12 November  2023 valuations?  Time will tell. The Bank of Shanghai should have a 25-30 percent loss from its current valuation. The asset-debt macroeconomic  system, a product of human transaction self-orders  the timing of its asset classes’ peak and secondary peak high and nadir low valuations and does in a m ..read more
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The Great November 2023 Global Crash: Part 2 : Target Fractal low valuation date : Thursday 16 November 2023.
The Economic Fractalist
by Gary Lammert
7M ago
Not all global asset valuations will crash. Recent buyers of US bonds and US Notes will see great valuation increases in purchased sovereign debt as those investment instruments will undergo quantum fractal lower interest rates – to the 16 November 2023 composite equity. gold. commodity, and crypto low valuations. Money exiting those assets sold by the smarter speculators/AI programs will enter the US debt market driving interest rates down. The inverse Sovereign Debt fractal series, ie, Bond and Note interest rates, are following a 4-Phase Lammert x/2-2.5x/2xi/1.5xi collapse where xi is the i ..read more
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Lammert Self-Assembly Saturation Asset-Debt Macroeconomics: The Great Interpolated 1982 13/30 Year 30 Year Subfractal (2) Nonlinear Collapse: Expected SPX First terminal Crash Low: Mid Trading Day – Thursday 2 November 2023
The Economic Fractalist
by Gary Lammert
7M ago
Within the Great 1807 US hegemonic 36/90/90/54 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x Fractal series – with a 36 year low valuation in 1842-43, a 90 year low valuation on 8 July 1932, a 90 year peak valuation on 8 November 2021, and an expected low in 2074, a several decade interpolated fractal series of x/2-2.5x started on 11-12 August 1982 of 13/30 years with a 13 year subfractal (1) low valuation ending in 1994. This is depicted below. Subfractal (2) series end in nonlinear devaluation. This can occur over months as occurred for the 90 year subfractal (2) ending in 1932 or more suddenly as in October 19 ..read more
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