The title of this post might seem like a truism, but for about a decade some people have claimed the opposite, and many people have spent much time and effort trying to understand why. Much of that effort was wasted. A decade ago, Nature Geoscience published , a review paper on potential connections between the […] The post Cold extremes do in fact decrease under global warming first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

A truly impressive paper was published this week with a new reconstruction of global temperatures over the last ~500 million years. There is something tremendously satisfying about seeing a project start, and then many years later see the results actually emerge and done better than you could have imagined. Especially one as challenging as accurately […] The post Phantastic Job! first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Try to be constructive! The post Unforced Variations: Sep 2024 first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

A recent paper suggested that ‘climate sensitivity’ derived from a new paleo-CO2 record is around 7.2ºC (for equilibrium climate sensitivity ECS) and ~13.9ºC (Earth System Sensitivity – ESS) for a doubling of CO2. Some press has suggested that this means that “Earth’s Temperature Could Increase by 25 Degrees” (F). Huge if true! Fortunately these numbers […] The post Oh My, Oh Miocene! first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

How should we allocate resources for climate modelling if the goal is to improve climate-related decisions? Higher resolution, machine learning and/or storylines? A call for a deeper discussion on how we should develop the climate modelling toolbox. Guest post by Marina Baldissera Pacchetti, Julie Jebeile and Erica Thompson The need for “km-scale” models able to […] The post The need for pluralism in climate modelling first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

This month’s open thread on climate topics. The post Unforced variations: Aug 2024 first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

This month’s open thread on climate science topics. The post Unforced variations: July 2024 first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Please stay focused, minimize repetitive comments, and maintain a half-way decent level of decorum. Thanks! The post Unforced variations: June 2024 first appeared on RealClimate ..read more

There were a number of media reports today related to Yuan et al. (2024), for instance, New Scientist, The Guardian etc. However, this is really just the beginning of what is likely to be a bit of a cottage industry in the next few months relating to possible causes/influences on the extreme temperatures seen in 2023. So to help people keep track, we’ll maintain a list here to focus discussions. Additionally, we’ll extract out the key results (such as the reported radiative forcing) as a guide to how this will all eventually get reconciled. We’ll split the papers up by process/topic, or if th ..read more

This month’s open thread on climate topics. Many eyes will be focused on whether April temperatures will be the 11th month in row of records… Note that we have updated the data and figures from the Nenana Ice Classic and Dawson City river ice break up pools (the nominal 13th and 5th earliest break-ups (or 15th and 4th, w.r.t. to the vernal equinox) in their respective records)). And a quick note about moderation: If your comment is a personal attack on another commenter instead of a substantive argument, it will just be deleted. As will your subsequent complaints. Ain’t nobody got time for th ..read more