Issues Associated with the Current Election
Aleph Blog
by David Merkel
1w ago
Picture Credit: derek visser (modified to exclude extraneous comments) || Trump and Harris are more similar than different. Both favor the rich, they lie, they are for abortion and against immigration. 1) For those that follow my Twitter feed, you know that I don’t like Trump or Harris much. Trump has bad character and evil ..read more
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Upside-Down?
Aleph Blog
by David Merkel
1M ago
Picture Credit: National Library of Ireland on The Commons || Interest rates always move in lockstep, right? So the Fed loosened 0.50%. Long past the time it should have done so. What was the result on the long end of the Treasury yield curve? Well, look at that! As the Fed cut the short-term policy ..read more
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A Suggestion to the CFA Institute
Aleph Blog
by David Merkel
2M ago
Image Credit: Andy Kobel || Remember, the market is mostly a weighing machine, not a voting machine There are three main gripes that I have with respect to the CFA Institute regarding the way they do exams. I have an idea to improve things. Go ahead and continue to hold exams at testing centers via ..read more
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When Should the New Yew York Department of Financial Services have Rehabilitated American Transit Insurance?
Aleph Blog
by David Merkel
2M ago
Hey! Maybe we can grow our way out of the problem! || All images from Aleph Blog At one point in time, I was a Fellow in the Society of Actuaries, a Life Actuary specializing in investment issues. Eventually, I was hired by a hedge fund to analyze all types of insurance stocks. I knew ..read more
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The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 43
Aleph Blog
by David Merkel
2M ago
Picture Credit: sevoo || I’m not dead yet… In my view, these were my best posts written between August 2017 and January 2018: The Crisis at the Tipping Point A reprise of what some people knew in advance of the Great Financial Crisis. Includes a link to what I wrote 10 years earlier, where I ..read more
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Estimating Future Stock Returns, December 2023 Update
Aleph Blog
by David Merkel
6M ago
Credit: Aleph Blog || Really, we should be expecting a bubble as the Baby Boomers retire. As of December 31st, 2023, the S&P 500 was forecasting a return of 1.34%/year over the next ten years, with no adjustment for inflation. As of the close on May 10th, 2024, that figure was 0.32%/year. Why so glum? US entities are overinvested in stocks and private equity. Since 1945, the fraction of total wealth in stocks today is in the 98th percentile. The pension funds of many states are counting on equities to allow them to fulfill their promises. They have the added advantage of higher interest ra ..read more
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A few thoughts
Aleph Blog
by David Merkel
10M ago
I know I haven’t been blogging for a while. I also haven’t been tweeting. I am shut out of X-Twitter because of two factor authentication issues. As such, I am doing a post today that is Twitter-like, giving my thoughts on a variety of news articles. Here we go: President Xi’s hero, Chairman Mao said “Women hold up half of the sky.”  And, that randy guy Mao certainly “held up half the sky” with many of them.  But women in China will not “hold up half the sky” for President Xi.  Women in China increasingly do not want to marry and have children.  If present trends continue f ..read more
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Estimating Future Stock Returns, June 2023 Update
Aleph Blog
by David Merkel
1y ago
Image Credit: Aleph Blog || Has the return on assets for public equities permanently risen? The return on bonds has risen for now. From the last piece: “At March 31st, 2023, the S&P 500 was priced to return 2.41%/year over the next ten years. Given the rally since then, that return has shrunk to 0.49%/year. Currently the 10-year Treasury yields 3.76%. In investment grade corporates, you could earn more than 5% with considerably lower risk.” There was an error in that statement, the return had only shrunk to 1.64%/year. A similar adjustment would have to be made to the second graph, which w ..read more
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Estimating Future Stock Returns, March 2023 Update
Aleph Blog
by David Merkel
1y ago
Image Credit: Aleph Blog || Has the return on assets for public equities permanently risen? At March 31st, 2023, the S&P 500 was priced to return 2.41%/year over the next ten years. Given the rally since then, that return has shrunk to 0.49%/year. Currently the 10-year Treasury yields 3.76%. In investment grade corporates, you could earn more than 5% with considerably lower risk. But, maybe it’s different this time. Yes, I know the danger of the phrase. What if AI increases total productivity of assets and labor by 1%/year on net, permanently? Will companies make more money as they need fe ..read more
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Sorted Weekly Tweets
Aleph Blog
by David Merkel
1y ago
Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from Bing Chat in Creative mode || Twitter bird is disappointed that he is short, like this post Artificial Intelligence A computer science student has figured out how to get ChatGPT to respond to prompts it would normally rebuff https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-08/jailbreaking-chatgpt-how-ai-chatbot-safeguards-can-be-bypassed  Where there are locks, there will be lockpicks. Apr 9 The ChatGPT King Isn’t Worried, but He Knows You Might Be https://nytimes.com/2023/03/31/technology/sam-altman-open-ai-chatgpt.html  A ..read more
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