Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 3.7% year-over-year compared to March 2023. This was the thirty-first consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. There is much more in the article ..read more

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Descended 4.3% in March Existing-home sales slipped in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slid in the Midwest, South and West, but rose in the Northeast for the first time since November 2023. Year-over-year, sales decreased in all regions. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 4.3% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million in March. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.7% (down from 4.3 ..read more

The DOL reported: In the week ending April 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 214,250 to 214,500. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average ..read more

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, up from 211 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, down from 3.2. • At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, down from 4.38 million ..read more

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in March; California Home Sales Down 4.4% YoY in March A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release March existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, April 18th at 10:00AM ET. The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, down from 4.38 million in February. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.23 million SAAR for March. ... And a table of March sales. In March, sales in these markets were down 9.7% YoY. In February, these same markets were up 1.6% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adju ..read more

Fed's Beige Book Overall economic activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity. Consumer spending barely increased overall, but reports were quite mixed across Districts and spending categories. Several reports mentioned weakness in discretionary spending, as consumers' price sensitivity remained elevated. Auto spending was buoyed notably in some Districts by improved inventories and dealer incentives, but sale ..read more

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. Click on graph for larger image. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 1 ..read more

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 12, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.5 percent from the previous week and was 11 percent h ..read more

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts ..read more

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.23 million in March, down 3.4% from February’s preliminary pace and down 2.8% from last ’s March’s seasonally adjusted pace.  Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY decline, as there were two fewer busin ..read more