Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply
Calculated Risk
by Calculated Risk
21h ago
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March • NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen" • 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in March; California Home Sales Down 4.4% YoY in March • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market ..read more
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Schedule for Week of April 21, 2024
Calculated Risk
by Calculated Risk
1d ago
The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q1 GDP, March New Home sales and March Personal Income and Outlays. For manufacturing, the April Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released. ----- Monday, April 22nd ----- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data. ----- Tuesday, April 23rd ----- 10:00 AM: New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 6 ..read more
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April 19th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Decreased
Calculated Risk
by Calculated Risk
2d ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. It is likely that we will see pandemic lows for hospitalizations and deaths in the next several weeks.  That is welcome news! For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have declined significantly from the winter high of 30,027 but are still slightly above the low of 5,386 last year. COVID Metrics   Now Week Ago Goal Hospitalized2 5,899 6,686 ≤3,0001 Deaths per Week2 779 982 ≤3501 1my goals to ..read more
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Q1 GDP Tracking: Movin' on Up
Calculated Risk
by Calculated Risk
2d ago
From BofA: Since our update last week, 1Q GDP tracking is up two-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Apr 19th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP forecast unchanged at +3.1% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales forecast also unchanged at +3.1% (qoq ar). [Apr 18th estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on April 16, up from 2.8 percent on April 15. [April 16th estimate ..read more
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NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen"
Calculated Risk
by Calculated Risk
2d ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen" Excerpt: From the NMHC: Apartment Market Continues to Loosen Amidst Worsening Financing Conditions Apartment market conditions continued to weaken in the National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC’s) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions for April 2024. With the exception of Sales Volume (52), which turned positive this quarter, the Market Tightness (41), Equity Financing (49), and Debt Financing (44) indexes all came in below the breakeven level (50). ... "[T]he U.S. apartment market ..read more
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 2.8% Year-over-year
Calculated Risk
by Calculated Risk
3d ago
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 April Helped by the total solar eclipse, U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 13 April. ... 7-13 April 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 65.8% (+2.8%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.20 (+2.9%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.48 (+5.8%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024, black is ..read more
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March; Median House Prices Increased 4.8% Year-over-Year
Calculated Risk
by Calculated Risk
3d ago
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 3.7% year-over-year compared to March 2023. This was the thirty-first consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. There is much more in the article ..read more
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March
Calculated Risk
by Calculated Risk
3d ago
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Descended 4.3% in March Existing-home sales slipped in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slid in the Midwest, South and West, but rose in the Northeast for the first time since November 2023. Year-over-year, sales decreased in all regions. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 4.3% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million in March. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.7% (down from 4.3 ..read more
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Unchanged at 212,000
Calculated Risk
by Calculated Risk
3d ago
The DOL reported: In the week ending April 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 214,250 to 214,500. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average ..read more
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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Philly Fed Mfg, Existing Home Sales
Calculated Risk
by Calculated Risk
4d ago
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, up from 211 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, down from 3.2. • At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, down from 4.38 million ..read more
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