
SCOT goes POP!
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A pro-independence blog by James Kelly - voted one of Scotland's top ten political websites. Visit the blog to read about Politics, Eurovision, Sport, Gun Control and more.
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20h ago
I was just about to give you the full figures from tonight's new Norstat poll, but the archived page I was relying on has stopped working (probably temporarily). What I can tell you for now from memory is that the poll shows the SNP and Greens on course to retain a narrow pro-independence majority at Holyrood, with 65 seats between them, and unionist parties on 64. Labour and the Tories are both dangerously close to being overtaken by Reform - they are on 18 seats apiece and Reform are on 15.
Once again, Alba are not projected to win any seats, and their list vote share has dropped ..read more
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1d ago
Yesterday people were looking at the result of the Kirkintilloch by-election, and because there was a Reform surge and an SNP collapse, they were rather simplistically assuming there must have been a big direct swing of votes from SNP to Reform. Of course it doesn't necessarily work like that, and especially not in a low-turnout local by-election. Reform could have gained their votes mainly from unionist parties or from people who abstained last time around, while the SNP could have lost votes to Labour, the Greens and abstentions.
I've been getting asked for a while to write a bl ..read more
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2d ago
The remaining members of the Alba Party, colloquially known as NYEs (Not Yet Expelleds), have been gripped once again today by Whodunnit fever after yet another catastrophic leak of sensitive information to Paul Hutcheon of the Daily Record. As before, the information can only have come from an extremely high level of the party, and the leak was undoubtedly calculated to damage or to end the political career of a specific Alba politician. The previous target was Kenny MacAskill, while today it was Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh. That's a fascinating twist, because of course MacAskill i ..read more
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3d ago
So let me once again take you by the hand and try to navigate you through the wacky world of STV by-elections. The Liberal Democrats were technically defending the seat in Kirkintilloch and Twechar, even though they only finished third in the ward last time around behind the SNP in first place and Labour in second. Labour have won the seat tonight, so whichever way you cut it, this is a genuine gain for them.
Kirkintilloch East and North & Twechar by-election result on first preferences (13th February 2025):
Labour 30.2% (+1.0)
SNP 22.9% (-16.0)
Liberal Democrats 21.3% (+2.6 ..read more
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3d ago
GB-wide voting intentions (Find Out Now, 12th February 2025):
Reform UK 29% (-)
Labour 23% (-2)
Conservatives 21% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 12% (-1)
Greens 9% (-1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 34%, Reform UK 25%, Conservatives 13%, Labour 12%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Greens 6%
As the data tables are already available, I've given you the Scottish subsample numbers for the sheer hell of it, but bear in mind that non-YouGov Scottish subsamples are unlikely to be statistically reliable.
This is the biggest lead Reform UK have ever had in any poll from any pollster, although ..read more
Second YouGov poll in a row shows Reform ahead - with an enormous SNP lead in the Scottish subsample
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3d ago
When Reform UK took the lead in a recent YouGov poll, I pointed out the oddity that in doing so, they hadn't quite matched their all-time high vote share with YouGov. Or at least not technically, because Reform are a legal continuation of the Brexit Party, which hit 26% in YouGov polls during a brief purple patch in mid-2019. However, in the new YouGov poll published a couple of days ago, Reform have now equalled that previous record, while maintaining their one-point lead over Labour, and increasing their advantage over the Tories to five points.
GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov ..read more
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5d ago
I went to my first SNP branch meeting tonight since rejoining the party, and while no political party will ever be perfect, it was something of a relief to symbolically 'turn the page' on my horrific experience in Alba. Ironically, while I was sitting in the meeting, it looks like Alba members were at long last being sent the recommendations of the Constitution Review Group, which I was an elected member of until September - a fact that ultimately led to my ejection from Alba due to me pushing 'too hard' for internal democratisation. So although I no longer have any stake in what h ..read more
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6d ago
Among the large number of people, some of them quite senior, who have been bullied out of the Alba Party, there is a difference of view over whether the party's most baleful influence has been Chris McEleny or Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh - but if anything the majority view is that "Tas" is the worse of the two. "She's poison, that one" said a former NEC member to me a few months ago. Most of the harm Ahmed-Sheikh causes is largely unseen, but all of the indications are that she was the driving force behind the party leadership's sudden and inexplicable vendetta against the likes of Jacqui ..read more
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6d ago
A comment on the previous thread:
"O/T. Judging by his most recent blog Campbell really has lost the plot. The frothers are in overdrive. Grrr grr."
So, with a degree of trepidation, I donned my trusty Wings-Watch cloak and took a look.
The post is about Nicola Sturgeon and is entitled "The End of the Reich", which probably tells you all you need to know, or as much as you'd ever wish to know. Early on, we're treated to the results of a Twitter poll Campbell ran, asking his readers whether they think Nicola Sturgeon or Donald Trump has done more for women. 96% say Trump, 4 ..read more
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1w ago
Over the last few weeks, several people have encouraged me to set up a Bluesky account and to promote my blogposts there. My view is that Twitter (I refuse to call it "X") remains much more important than Bluesky and I'd be foolish to abandon it - but on the other hand there's no getting away from the fact that a lot of left-of-centre people have moved across to Bluesky, and therefore the engagement rate for people like me on Twitter isn't what it used to be even a couple of years ago. So I may be missing a trick by not having a presence on both sites.
I can't say I'm filled with ..read more