First of all, a quick note to let you know that I'm quoted in Alasdair Soussi's profile of John Swinney on the Al Jazeera website, which you can read HERE.  I'm both critical of Swinney and complimentary towards him, so there's something there for everyone! Secondly, I can't resist taking the bait from Stuart Campbell, because this line is provably absurd: "And the office of Deputy First Minister is ceremonial – it’s very much the exception rather than the rule if the DFM ever becomes the actual FM." In fact, prior to Kate Forbes, there had been five Deputy First Ministers: Jim Wallace, N ..read more

I didn't write about it at the time because I didn't want to tempt fate, but when the announcement was made that Kate Forbes had been appointed as Deputy First Minister, the first thought that went through my head was that the appointment was not automatic, and that it was actually quite hard to see where the parliamentary arithmetic was going to come from to get her approved.  So the outcome yesterday was a tremendous relief, and for that we have to partly thank the Liberal Democrats for constructively abstaining.   But why did they do it?  Logically they would have stood ..read more

Looking back at the dates, it seems to have been 2nd May on which it became obvious that John Swinney was the next SNP leader, so as this poll didn't start until the 3rd, it can be seen to all intents and purposes as the first published poll of the Swinney era.  That said, things can be a little bit different once the public actually see a new leader in the role, rather than just anticipating it, so it'll still be important to see the first polls entirely conducted after Swinney was officially sworn in. Should Scotland be an independent country? (Savanta, 3rd-8th May 2024) Yes 48% (-1) No ..read more

I was a bit sceptical about whether John Swinney would actually go as far as appointing Kate Forbes as Deputy First Minister, because it marks her out so obviously as the most likely successor.  The reports about a succession plan being in place to stop her made me wonder if she'd be sold short with an offer of a lesser Cabinet position.  However, I suppose the likelihood is that the deputy role was part of the price of her support, and having entered into the deal he decided to act in good faith.   I think that does now leave the SNP in a significantly better position than ..read more

Without wanting to be overly critical, I think it's probably reasonable to say that Graeme McCormick has behaved slightly oddly, and not entirely fairly to the SNP members who went to considerable lengths to back him.  There's a place for abortive leadership bids that end with a "long and fruitful" chat with the chap who wants a coronation, but that place had already been filled by Kate Forbes.  Realistically the only reason members were nominating a little-known candidate was because they had made up their minds they definitely wanted an election rather than yet more tales of a behi ..read more

This is a curate's egg poll, so let's start with the good part.  Support for independence has remained impressively untouched by the crisis within the SNP, and indeed has increased slightly since the last Norstat poll, although that may just be margin-of-error noise. Should Scotland be an independent country? (Norstat / Sunday Times, 30th April - 3rd May 2024) Yes 48% (+1) No 52% (-1) However, as you've probably heard by now, the poll is a lot less good for the SNP themselves. This is one of the rare occasions when the exact dates a poll was conducted are by far the most important part o ..read more

I'm purely offering this as information for any Scot Goes Pop readers who happen to be SNP members - and I'm getting it all second hand so apologies if anything turns out to be wrong.  An SNP member called Graeme McCormick is trying to stand for the leadership in order to force a contest.  He needs 100 nominations from members, and those members need to be spread across 20 branches.  Nominations will be collected in person today, between 1pm and 3pm, at the Pensioners 4 Indy stall in Glasgow Green as part of the AUOB rally.  You'll need to have your membership number handy ..read more

Kate Forbes has clearly decided not to run, which is hopefully a decision made from a position of strength due to a deal with John Swinney.  The SNP have missed a golden opportunity to get back on track, but I'm not as despondent as I was a year ago when Humza Yousaf narrowly won.  That outcome was an unmitigated disaster because it lumbered the independence movement with three problems simultaneously - a) it put independence on the backburner for the foreseeable future, b) it installed an unsuitable leader who the public actively disliked and thought wasn't up to the job, and c) it ..read more

John Swinney has finally declared, and as I said yesterday, he was always going to have to address the suspicion that he'd be an interim leader.  He's now said that he would lead the SNP through both the general election and Holyrood election, although that still leaves open the question of how far beyond the Holyrood election he would go. We now wait to see if Kate Forbes will take him on or has done a deal with him.  I hope she takes him on, but if she's done a deal I hope she's settled for nothing less than a dual role as Deputy First Minister and a senior Cabinet brief, most lik ..read more

We still don't know whether there will be a contested SNP leadership election between Johm Swinney and Kate Forbes.  If there is, I agree with the conventional wisdom that Swinney would start as favourite (he's literally the only potential candidate who would start as favourite against Forbes), but I disagree with those assuming the outcome would be a foregone conclusion.  Those people are laying a lot of emphasis on the sentimental attachment that the SNP rank-and-file have for Swinney, and I don't think there's much doubt that if SNP conference delegates or attendees of branch meet ..read more