Last update ended with (in part):  In conclusion, SPX captured Target 2, good for around 200 points of profit for readers. It would look a little better if it were to head at least a bit deeper into the 4970-5005 zone, but that's not required and if that's ALL OF 3/C down, a big bounce is possible any time. SPX did indeed head a bit deeper into the target zone, and even exceeded it slightly.  That's about as far as I can get us for the moment and I now have something approaching a neutral stance, at least from an analytical standpoint.  A big bounce is indeed possible from here ..read more

In the prior update, I wrote that I expected SPX to capture Target 2 (4970-5005, from 4/12) and yesterday, it dropped down to 5001, capturing that target.  The immediate question now is whether wave v is close to being complete -- or if it will extend.   After that, the next question is as discussed last update: As we can see on the chart above, to complete C/3 down, bears would need another new low, which I'm currently inclined to suspect they'll get after a bounce. That would complete red v, which would complete THREE waves down [4/19 Note:  We are here now, at three ..read more

Since last update, SPX captured its downside target of 5070-90 from April 12: As we can see on the chart above, to complete C/3 down, bears would need another new low, which I'm currently inclined to suspect they'll get after a bounce.  That would complete red v, which would complete THREE waves down, so from there, a rally to new ATHs would not be off the table.  For bears to demonstrate more control, they would then need a bounce in a larger 4th wave, followed by another new low, at which point, we could conceivably label the entire wave off the ATH as an impulse.  The alte ..read more

Last update noted it was bears' ball "for now," and I think we can call that a hit, but today we're going to examine both sides of the trade. To do that, let's start with BKX: NYA is in a similar position: SPX has kept alive "Option a" from a couple updates ago: Finally, the TLT update I promised on Friday (on the Forum): In conclusion, because of BKX and NYA, we can no longer be 100% certain that it's still bears' ball (I anticipated this potential, which is why I included "for now" in the statement last update).  That said, it feels like bears may have more in the tank ..read more

Last update discussed two options for SPX, and it appears that SPX choose the first of those two options: As discussed on Wednesday, both of those options were ultimately bearish in the event of a break of 5146 -- which means that the "bounce" option was corrective.  Which in turn means that it (the bounce) doesn't need to reach the 5230 threshold -- since corrective waves are not bound by rules, targets can be simply described as "most commonly, here's what happens," but being against the larger trend, corrections can (and often do) fall short. So, presuming bears hold 5257, we may b ..read more

The market didn't go anywhere since last update, but I have outlined a couple of the "bad news" (for bulls) options on the near-term SPX chart: Of course, those are not the only two options in the event of a breakdown at 5146, just the two "most obvious" -- the market is sometimes more probabilistic than deterministic, so I almost never entirely write anything off. Bigger picture, as the internet is fond of saying: "I'll just leave this here." Not much to add beyond that -- just that if bears can sustain a breakdown at 5146, while it doesn't guarantee (anything, ever), it does at le ..read more

Two interesting charts today, first up is the SPX near-term chart: As we can see, there are three pretty clear waves down from the recent all-time high, and it's interesting how perfectly that drop tested the upper boundary of the red triangle (which, if nothing else, goes even further to confirm that pattern as the right read).  So the question now is whether that's it for the correction, since there are enough waves down for a completed correction. Next, is the bigger picture SPX chart, which captured its February upside target: So, if we put these two charts together, we can se ..read more

The market took a dive yesterday, after shocking comments by Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari, in which he finally publicly apologized for the fact that his parents apparently had no idea how to spell "Neil."  He also mentioned that while he originally had two rate cuts "penciled in" for 2024, he just realized that he actually has a doctor's appointment on that exact same day, so he might be forced to reschedule those rate cuts for 2025.  Or beyond, if bulls won't stop leaving annoying messages on his voicemail.   Of course, the market has been banking on a retu ..read more

Yesterday, SPX confirmed the near-term triangle count (as well as any hypothesis is confirmed by the materialization of a predicted outcome, anyway) by revisiting the upper edge of the triangle zone: So, without getting too far ahead of the market, what we have for certain is a confirmed triangle, and triangles are typically the penultimate wave of the larger wave in which they reside (i.e.- the fourth wave of that larger wave).  This in turn suggests that a larger wave completed at the most recent all time high -- however, since we don't have an impulsive decline yet, we (in actuality ..read more

Last update discussed that bears had work to do if they wanted to get anything going -- specifically, that they would first need to break below the blue trend line on the near-term SPX chart: Typical of bears, though, they decided to knock off early for Easter weekend and thus failed to accomplish anything at all, allowing bulls to score another easy first down.  It's worth noting that the blue trend line will not be as important heading into today's session. Bigger picture, the blue bull count and the (still ultimately bullish) diagonal remain the leaders, for now, with the black bea ..read more