SPX, COMPQ, INDU Updates
Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis
by PretzelLogic
15h ago
SPX hasn't really gone anywhere (except sideways) since last update, so we still have a situation where: On the one hand, there are potentially enough waves up for a decent correction to begin from here. On the other hand, the various indices all seem to be doing their own thing, so one can see whatever one wants to, based on which market they pick and their preexisting bias. This lack of agreement between markets continues to make me uncomfortable from an analytical standpoint.  A look at the following three charts may help shed more light on why, starting with INDU: Next, COMPQ ..read more
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SPX and COMPQ and NYA and INDU and...
Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis
by PretzelLogic
6d ago
In the prior update, I was leaning toward SPX and COMPQ still needing another high, which they both got.  Yay.  To boot, they then both reversed exactly as they should have, since that wave was expected to be a micro 5th wave to complete a larger wave.  Yay.  Again. But then we have NYA and INDU and BKX (et al), which all rallied yesterday.  Normally, I like to see something approaching agreement between markets, especially near turn zones.  Because when every market is instead doing its own thing, it starts to feel more like a box full of agitated cats, and it m ..read more
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SPX and COMPQ: So Much Depends Upon a Red...
Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis
by PretzelLogic
1w ago
Last update expected that SPX and COMPQ both needed at least one 4/5 unwind, and they both stalled and then made a new high, in line with that expectation.  But it's finally getting tougher now, for reasons we'll discuss below: When we study the above chart, we cannot help but be reminded of the famous poem by William Carlos Williams Carloses: so much depends  upon  a red wheel  number barrow iii glazed with rain  water beside the white  chicken nuggets The moral of that poem, of course, is: It's getting tricky around these parts now, so watch you ..read more
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SPX, COMPQ, and Shoes
Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis
by PretzelLogic
1w ago
Last update prognosticated: What we see on both charts is three waves up (so far) off the recent lows, which suggests that this is (most likely) not yet a complete rally wave. An alternate potential to remain aware of (for the next session or two, anyway) is for those three waves to mark yet another b-wave high, which would reverse back toward the right-most "IV?" on the COMPQ chart, before rallying again. Given the strength of the rally so far, that seems less likely, but it is still technically possible... At this point, it appears to remain bulls' ball, for now, with at least one micro ..read more
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SPX and COMPQ: No Surprises
Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis
by PretzelLogic
1w ago
SPX continued rallying on Wednesday, bringing the pattern I thought I was seeing (originally on June 24) to a more satisfying fruition. Since the chart above references COMPQ, let's look at that chart before we talk further: What we see on both charts is three waves up (so far) off the recent lows, which suggests that this is (most likely) not yet a complete rally wave.  An alternate potential to remain aware of (for the next session or two, anyway) is for those three waves to mark yet another b-wave high, which would reverse back toward the right-most "IV?" on the COMPQ chart, bef ..read more
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SPX Update: Correct Call vs. Correct Grammar
Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis
by PretzelLogic
2w ago
Friday's update concluded: If I was forced at gunpoint to offer something, I'd probably lean toward SPX correcting some more (either with or without a modest new high), then (after correcting) going on to make another high to finally complete wave 5 and thus wrap up the remaining 4/5 I discussed a couple weeks ago. SPX then went on to make a modest new high before reversing almost all the way back to the low of the week.  Although it was challenging to predict last week with much confidence, I can't call it much better than that, though in hindsight, I believe I probably should have used ..read more
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SPX, INDU, COMPQ Updates
Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis
by PretzelLogic
2w ago
Last update wondered if SPX would catch up with futures to thus behave according to Monday's real-time prediction, and it ultimately did.  Thing is, this wave structure is less than clear, so let's take a look at the chart really quick: Interestingly, INDU is still leaving open at least the near-term bear option: COMPQ might indirectly argue more for the bull case, though it's always possible COMPQ makes a new high as part of a complex IV or to complete V: In conclusion, there's not a lot of agreement across markets, which makes it all but impossible to make a high confidence ..read more
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SPX, INDU, COMPQ and You
Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis
by PretzelLogic
3w ago
So, they've elected to make things interesting.  Last update, I speculated that perhaps bears would get a little respite... which they sort of did, but not as much as I'd projected.  Perhaps counterintuitively, this makes things more complicated, not less.  Let's get right into it, starting with SPX and a bear case: Here's the forum post referenced above, along with the SPX 24-hour chart, as of ~30 minutes before market open: So, that's at least interesting.  We'll see if SPX elects to break that near-term low, or if it instead wants to "catch up" to futures and run ..read more
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SPX, INDU, Wilshire 5000: "Refer" Madness
Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis
by PretzelLogic
3w ago
On Friday, the market went to breakfast and never returned, leaving both bulls and bears to wonder if maybe they'd chosen the wrong profession.  Accordingly, I have no real choice but to repeat Friday's closing paragraph, with one change (noted below): In conclusion, because we are into "never bank on fifth waves" territory, there's always the possibility that the rally is done, but right now it probably looks slightly more likely that there's still another 4/5 unwind out there lurking. Do be aware though, that even if the current drop is "only a fourth wave," because the prior fifth wav ..read more
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COMPQ Update
Pretzel Logic's Market Charts and Analysis
by PretzelLogic
3w ago
Readers got a free "bonus update" on Wednesday because nobody reminded me that it was Juneteenth, which is an important holiday commemorating the fact that months can also be numbers.  There have been years I've forgotten my own birthday (not kidding) until someone (usually my wife or one of the kids) said, "Happy Birthday," so I can hardly be expected to remember every holiday on the calendar, especially those that have only become official recently. Anyway, it turns out I should have taken that day off and now the market owes me one.  Also, there's not a lot to add to that update ..read more
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