The correlation between more police enforcement and fewer shooting incidents in NYC
Cop in the Hood
by Moskos
1y ago
In early 2021 I pointed out, which was a considered a radial concept by many at the time, that violence had indeed gone way up since the unrest following the murder of George Floyd. I wanted to update the data in that post about the relationship between enforcement (or lack thereof) and violence. So I did. Breaking it down by quarter shows heavy seasonal effects. So it’s more useful to compare every 4th bar (same quarter, different year) than every adjacent bar. 3Q 2019 vs 3Q 2020 is the most dramatic. Here are the categories and numbers. I picked the categories to ones that mattered and to ..read more
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The Rebirth of 42nd Street
Cop in the Hood
by Moskos
1y ago
The first excerpt from my book has been published by the (very) good people at Vital City. Check it out: https://www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/peter-moskos-oral-history-times-square ..read more
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Arrests down 25% in 2020?
Cop in the Hood
by Moskos
2y ago
I’m going to start with a bunch of caveats. A) This is crude data analysis. B) It it based on incomplete Uniform Crime Report data dependent on reliable data reported (not a given). C) I may have simply done this wrong. It’s 2AM. D) This is important: arrests are NOT good for their own sake, but most policing is discretionary. And arrests can be a decent proxy for proactive policing. All that said, there’s something important going on here, based on last year’s UCR Arrest data, limitations and all. Arrests in the US (again with the very important caveats, above) dropped 1% in 2018, 10% in 2019 ..read more
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The beginning of Compstat
Cop in the Hood
by Moskos
2y ago
A new podcast episode talks about the origin stories of NYPD’s compstat with, William Gorta, one of the “founding fathers.” https://qualitypolicing.com/qpp-51-william-gorta-part-1-2 ..read more
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A list of police-centered and police-related crime reduction studies
Cop in the Hood
by Moskos
2y ago
It’s strangely common that some people assert — often on twitter — something like, “we KNOW police don’t prevent crime.” It’s like some mantra that they hope people will believe if they repeat it enough. But as one smarter person said “No informed person seriously believes police have no effect on crime.” And yet many people are, well, not informed. And it does damage. So here is a (partial, in progress) list of studies in support of police-centered and police-related crime reductions. It’s useful for me to have these in one place. Feel free to send me updates at my email (you can find it if y ..read more
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New Violence Becomes the New Normal
Cop in the Hood
by Moskos
3y ago
Baltimore is one of the only cities in America that didn’t see a rise in murder in 2020. (The other being Newark, NJ.) That’s the good news. The bad news is that murder in Baltimore increased by 2/3rd after the riots of April 27, 2015 and a subsequent change in policing (“depolicing”) as demanded by “reformers.” The rise in violence was not “just a blip.” It became the new normal. It’s stayed at that high level ever since. It is possible that there is a certain level of violence that any given city might see with proactive policing. And other without proactive policing. What this might mean i ..read more
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Shooting in NYC, 2020
Cop in the Hood
by Moskos
3y ago
Quality of life / Broken Windows policing has basically ended in NYC. There simply is no proactive enforcement. Every category is down, from open container to public pissing to being in a park after hours. Collectively all these categories (listed below) resulted in tens of thousands of police public contacts. It correlates with the largest increase in violence in New York City history. It might be just coincidence. It seems like more than that, though. These weren’t arrests, mind you. They were civil and criminal citations. The former is a ticket. That latter is a ticket plus, and requires a ..read more
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Baltimore Stops Policing
Cop in the Hood
by Moskos
3y ago
I thought not clearing drug corners after the 2015 riots was a big deal. It was. Murders nearly doubled. But “little” things like this are big deals. And very few will notice the cause and effect after the fact. That’s the shame. There’s no accountability for what are purely political decision. “Cops are pulling back!” they’ll say. And it’s true. But people need to get at the way. Baltimore cops are being told (the “after consulting with a lieutenant or above” is the hammer) to not arrest for drugs, attempted distribution of drugs, prostitution, trespassing, “minor” traffic offenses (minor wi ..read more
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The Violence Reduction Project
Cop in the Hood
by Moskos
3y ago
It’s up. It’s live. It’s a bunch of smart people and their ideas about what to do about violence, right now. https://qualitypolicing.com/violencereduction ..read more
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FOP Baltimore Blueprint
Cop in the Hood
by Moskos
3y ago
This was released 9 years ago. It was ignored. It wasn’t a bad plan. Had it been adopted, a lot might have been better. FOP-Baltimore-blueprint-2012Download It’s interesting to me because I’m not a big fan of police unions. But I am fan of unions. And here’s a union not fear mongering or being racist but trying to do good. And the report was ignored. Since then there was a riot, murders has nearly doubled and the DOJ came out with a much worse report. Such is progress. Here is what I wrote about the report when it came out: Good Ideas from the Baltimore FOP Here is what I wrote about it afte ..read more
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