Yaël Braun-Pivet has been reelected president of the National Assembly, narrowly edging out the NFP candidate André Chassaigne with the help of votes from the newly rebaptized Droite Républicaine, ex-LR. The DR will be richly rewarded for its support: in negotiations between Gabriel Attal and Laurent Wauquiez, the latter was promised a vice-presidency, a questure, and the chairmanship of the finance committee. The latter must go to a party of the “opposition,” and indeed DR has officially inscribed itself in the “opposition,” although for this vote it aligned itself with EPR (Ensemble pour un ..read more

The New Popular Front briefly reinvigorated the left with enthusiasm for the idea of stopping the radical right in its tracks and, with luck, achieving major social advances, including a rise in the minimum wage and a fairer pension reform plan. The radical right has been stopped for now, but the social advances are rapidly receding into a very uncertain future. Perhaps the historical precedent one should invoke is not the Popular Front of 1936-1938 but the second Cartel des Gauches of 1932-1934. After the right won the elections of 1928, the Radical-Socialists–which, despite the name, was ac ..read more

The Socialists, Greens, and Communists have agreed to propose Laurence Tubiana as the NFP’s candidate for prime minister, but LFI has rejected the proposal as “not serious.” On the contrary, the nomination–unlike that of Huguette Bello–is entirely serious, and that is why LFI is rejecting it. Because for the insoumis, the goal is not to find a person whom Macron will accept and who can then form a government that stands an outside chance of surviving for more than two weeks. It is rather to pursue a strategy of intransigence, blockage, and “heightening contradictions” for the purpose of disti ..read more

Blocages is too mild a word for the paralysis that has gripped the French political class since last Sunday’s election. It’s not just the tripartite division of the National Assembly that stands in the way of finding a prime minister. It’s not just the aloofness of the president, who, in his letter to the French, notes that what France needs is a new political culture while failing to observe that such a culture can’t be created over night. The real problem is that the unprecedented rapport de forces created by the election has revealed dozens of fissures and cracks within the parti ..read more

Yesterday was a day full of revelations. First, we learned that Jordan Bardella, deprived of the chance to become France’s next prime minister, will instead become the president of Patriots for Europe, a new group of European Parliament deputies organized by Hungary’s Viktor Orban. The defection of the RN contingent catapults the new group into third place in the EP, a gathering place for the unsavory, among whom we also find Matteo Salvini’s Lega, which has split off from Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia. The Lega will be represented by the eminently unfrequentable Gen. Roberto Vannacci, who quite ..read more

What is one to make of all the posturing among the deputies newly elected to la Chambre introuvable? The Mélenchonistes look like amateur poker players going all in on a pair of deuces. “We won!” the boss declared, as he pushed his pile of a few dozen chips to the center of the table. “Now give us all your money.” Two days later, Manuel Bompard and Clémence Guetté are making the rounds of the morning interview shows as if they already had the whole pot in hand. “Jean-Luc Mélenchon has all the requisite qualities of a prime minister,” Bompard declared. In his dreams. Meanwhile, Yaël ..read more

No, I haven’t been stunned into silence by yesterday’s amazing and worrisome result. I’ve written an article for The New Republic: here’s the link. In the meantime, I want to congratulate Tocqueville21’s managing editor, Shane McLorrain, who is the only person I know who accurately predicted in the T21 newsletter that the NFP would finish first and Ensemble second. When I first saw this forecast, I thought it was way off. It wasn’t. Credit where credit is due. And always be wary of expert opinion, including mine. The post What Next? first appeared on Tocqueville21 ..read more

This electoral sequence certainly has not provided the “clarification” President Macron hoped for when he dissolved the National Assembly, but it has cleared up a few things on the left. Mélenchon’s purge of Corbière, Garrido, et al. set his authoritarian proclivities in relief as never before. And now François Ruffin has quit LFI. Make no mistake: he obviously had one and a half feet out the door before this month. He is in a close race to hold on to his seat, which he will probably lose, and Mélenchon makes a convenient scapegoat. I hold no brief for Ruffin, whose brand of agitprop leftism ..read more

The outcome of Sunday’s second round remains unpredictable. The désistements have made it even more improbable that the RN will win an absolute majority … unless, of course, voters decide not to act as the automata that the logic of “republican discipline” supposes. It may turn out that left-wing voters will find the prospect of voting for a centrist or rightist candidate so unappetizing that they stay home, or vice-versa. The various changes of tune that have filled the airways since last Sunday–les extrêmes ne se touchent plus, disent les uns; les désistements, c’est l’anti-démocr ..read more

It’s the morning after the election, but the dust has only partially settled. Even with the rapid désistements of candidates willing to abide by traditional “republican discipline,” the ultimate outcome is not clear. Although the RN could still win an absolute majority, and Macron seems to be preparing for the eventuality, the most likely configuration is a hung parliament. The president could then appoint anyone prime minister, but that prime minister would somehow have to cobble together a coalition out of a very disparate group of deputies. Although the NPF is willing to join wit ..read more