Widening Gap Between Fed and ECB Interest Rate Outlooks, Updated IMF Growth Forecasts, and a Slew of Price Data
CurrencyThoughts
by larrygreenberg
1d ago
The dollar and U.S. equities are little changed this Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei-225 index closed down 1.3%, but share prices rose 2.1% in China and 1.6% in Taiwan. European stocks are up, too. Bitcoin’s price plunged 4.4% overnight, extending its drop over the past five weeks to 17%. WTI oil is down 1.2%, but gold is ..read more
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Tuesday Rundown
CurrencyThoughts
by larrygreenberg
2d ago
The mounting relief late in 2023 and early this year that monetary easing happens sooner rather than later has largely dissipated in the face of uncooperative data. To be sure, economic data rarely move in a strictly linear fashion, and monetary policies are guided not by single points of data but rather on the basis ..read more
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Competing Market Forces
CurrencyThoughts
by larrygreenberg
3d ago
The dominant theme of the first half of April has been the retreat in hopes that a cycle of Fed interest rate cuts might commence as early as June. This shift is being driven by data pointing to stalled U.S. disinflation and stronger-than-assumed economic growth. Monday’s menu of U.S. data includes Stronger-than-expected retail sales that ..read more
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Coming Week’s Menu: April 13-19, 2024
CurrencyThoughts
by larrygreenberg
5d ago
Central Banks: The Federal Reserve Beige Book of recent regional economic conditions will be published, and a slew of Fed officials have public speaking opportunities including Goolsbee, Williams, Bostic, Mester, Daly and Logan. Lane, Schnaebel and Guindos of the European Central Bank and Bailey, Haskel, Breeden, and Ramsden of the Bank of England will be ..read more
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Dollar Strengthens to 2024 High
CurrencyThoughts
by larrygreenberg
6d ago
Fear that Iran is going to attack Israel is augmenting economic factors strengthening the dollar, which climbed 0.7% on a weighted basis to its strongest point since November. Today’s release of U.S. import price data also buoyed the U.S. currency. Import price gains in March of 0.4% both on month and year-on-year exceeded expectations. Import ..read more
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U.S. PPI and ECB Rate Announcement Fail To Clarify Confusion about Future Inflation and Central Bank Interest Rates
CurrencyThoughts
by larrygreenberg
1w ago
Central bankers have consistently sent a message that disinflation will be a bumpy process and that monetary policy normalization will hinge on growing confidence that inflation targets will be fully resecured. In other words, time and evolving information will dictate what is done. It is not apparent if inflation will meet these parameters without a ..read more
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Bad U.S. CPI News Impacts Financial Markets Immediately
CurrencyThoughts
by larrygreenberg
1w ago
U.S. consumer price inflation in March exceeded expectations and continued a 2024 pattern of disappointment for investors hoping to see the Federal Reserve lower interest rates. In response, The weighted DXY dollar index is 0.8% above Tuesday’s closing level. The greenback rose 1.4% and 1.0% against the Australian and New Zealand dollar, 0.9% versus the ..read more
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Waiting Game Except in Gold’s Case
CurrencyThoughts
by larrygreenberg
1w ago
Tuesday’s been another wait-and-see day, with little fresh data to provide direction and being just ahead of tomorrow’s release of U.S. consumer price figures and minutes from the last FOMC U.S. monetary policy meeting. The dollar’s a touch softer, declining overnight by 0.5% against the Australian currency, 0.4% versus the Swiss franc, 0.3% relative to ..read more
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Long-Term Interest Rates Higher Still
CurrencyThoughts
by larrygreenberg
1w ago
Ten-year sovereign debt yields climbed so far today by four basis points in Germany, two bps in the U.S. and U.K., and a basis point in Japan. The dollar is marginally lower, slipping 0.2% versus the euro, 0.4% against the kiwi, 0.3% relative to the Aussie dollar, and 0.1% vis-a-vis sterling. Not all dollar relationships ..read more
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Next Week’s Menu: April 6-12, 2024
CurrencyThoughts
by larrygreenberg
1w ago
Central Banks: Monetary policies to be reviewed at the European Central Bank and in Canada, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand, Serbia, Israel, Peru, and the Philippines. Minutes will be published from last month’s FOMC meeting, and Kashkari, Goolsbee, Williams and Bostic are some of the Fed officials who will be speaking publicly during the period ..read more
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