Temperature outpaces policy: Still fighting over 1.5 degrees warming? Dude, we’re already way past that.
Raising Islands-Hawai'i science and environment
by Jan T
4M ago
  Climate change impact predictions have long been based on best case scenarios, but that’s not where we are headed. We are headed for catastrophe. At this point the question is when. What kind of catastrophe? Like, the only way to get into O’ahu by air would be by seaplane. Legislators arriving at the State Capitol by boat. Coastal highways impassable. Harbor facilities underwater. Coastal communities on all islands awash. And the economy long gone. No sandy beaches and, anyway, no way for visitors to get here. Numerous climate reports are being released in anticipation of the United Na ..read more
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Why does smooth pāhoehoe lava suddenly change to crystal-filled ‘a’ā lava? A new theory.
Raising Islands-Hawai'i science and environment
by Jan T
10M ago
 When water flows down a gradual stream over a generally flat bottom, it’s clear and transparent, but when it hits a steep slope like rapids and waterfalls, it turns white and frothy. Still wet, but very different. Similarly, newly-erupted molten volcanic rock flows smooth and sinuous as pāhoehoe lava, and then sometimes changes to an entirely different look, broken-up, chunky, rough ‘a’ā lava. We know what’s causing the water to change—turbulence and increased speed. But what’s happening with molten rock? A team of Stanford researchers think they have an answer. They are Cansu Culha, Sam ..read more
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Hawai'i ocean levels inches below normal--what's going on?
Raising Islands-Hawai'i science and environment
by Jan T
10M ago
 Sea levels around Hawai’i are unusually low, and have been for some months. Experts aren’t sure why. They are pretty sure they’ll come back to normal, and higher. But because they’re not sure precisely why, they also can’t be sure when. My canoe paddling clan in recent month has noticed that low tides have seemed really low. Like, mud flats where there’s normally water. Others may be seeing reefs where there's normally water. And seeing beaches bigger than they were last year. To figure this out, I called Chip Fletcher, who didn’t know, but knew who would. Fletcher is the interim dean at ..read more
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Gray-backed tern returns to Palmyra Atoll
Raising Islands-Hawai'i science and environment
by Jan T
11M ago
 The Nature Conservancy has attracted gray-backed terns back to Palmyra Atoll after they were lost to the island, likely due to rat predation. (Image: Gray-backed tern chick. Credit: The Nature Conservancy.) Researchers used wooden decoys and recorded bird calls to try to convince the terns--and seven other seabird species--to land and to nest on Palmyra. A single gray-backed tern was raised on this island this season, the first in recent memory. Gray-backed terns, formerly Sterna lunata and recently recategorized Onychoprion lunata, are pākalakala in Hawaiian. They are one of ei ..read more
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Climate shifts further: La Niño is over, El Niño coming by summer
Raising Islands-Hawai'i science and environment
by Jan T
1y ago
The La Nina oceanic condition, which we’ve been in for many months, has ended, and an El Nino appears likely to form in the summer or fall. That’s the latest prediction from the Climate Prediction Center:  It builds on the report we filed last month, when we suggested a fair chance of El Nino by mid year. That fair chance now seems to have been elevated to a pretty good chance. Spring predictions tend to be problematic, but most models see us going that way. Thus the La Nina cool phase of Central Pacific climate is behind us, and we are in something called ENSO-neutral, ENSO being the ter ..read more
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The international enigma, a baffling sphere on Japan beach, would be no mystery to Hawai'i beachgoers
Raising Islands-Hawai'i science and environment
by Jan T
1y ago
(Image: Fuji News Network image of the globally baffling sphere on Hamamatsu City beach.) International media report they’re baffled by a mysterious metal sphere that washed up on a Japan beach. It wouldn’t be baffling to any Hawai’i beachgoer, because we see them all the time. They wash up regularly, sometimes painted orange or yellow, but most often covered with brown-red rust. Big, hollow (or occasionally foam-filled) steel spheres used in various maritime activities. The sphere in question, 4-5 feet in diameter, washed up on a long stretch of sand off Hamamatsu City. It caused great const ..read more
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Wrapping up the shot-down balloons story: Yes, balloons can crash planes
Raising Islands-Hawai'i science and environment
by Jan T
1y ago
 We may not learn a whole lot more about the four objects shot down during February 2023 by American jets, other than they appeared to all be balloons carrying some sort of payload. The first was a Chinese-owned giant balloon that drifted across North America from Alaska to North Carolina, where it was shot down February 4 after it passed the coast into the Atlantic. As best we know, it had surveillance equipment on board, multiple antennas, and presumably the capacity to track and report on U.S. communications.  U.S. intelligence agencies tracked it from takeoff in south China, all ..read more
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Maybe alien, maybe not balloons, speculation rampant about the mysterious shot down objects
Raising Islands-Hawai'i science and environment
by Jan T
1y ago
 (Image: U.S. Navy assault craft working on the recovery of debris from the Chinese balloon shot down over South Carolina February 4. Credit: U.S. Navy.) Everything about the mystery objects we’ve been shooting down remains in limbo—partly because we and the Canadians have not completed operations to recover them. Some American officials say it’s a step too far to suggest they are alien craft from extraterrestrial sources. Others won’t rule that out. But we won’t have clear indications until we can actually inspect the wreckage. Until then, it’s all Area 51-type speculation. Much of the ..read more
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El Nino conditions on track to return after early summer
Raising Islands-Hawai'i science and environment
by Jan T
1y ago
 There continues to be good odds that oceanic conditions will return to an El Nino state by mid-year, and that could portend a more active hurricane season for the Hawaiian Islands. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center, in a paper issued today(February 9, 2023), said that the current La Nina is weak and continuing to weaken in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Warmer waters are appearing in the western Pacific and moving east. The El Nino phenomenon is often called ENSO, for El Nino Southern Oscillation. It is associated with movement of heat in ocean waters, changes in winds, alterations ..read more
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Surveillance balloons. There's THERE there, but some folks protest a little much
Raising Islands-Hawai'i science and environment
by Jan T
1y ago
 Lots of drama these days about surveillance balloons after a China balloon sailed across our country and we shot it down. And now there’s another China balloon over Latin America. But a lot of the political furor over this is misplaced, or at least uninformed. There’s a lot to the balloons story, and it’s an old, old tale. And to be clear, the United States has conducted balloon surveillance over both the Soviet Union and China since right after World War II. Many of those were shot down by the other guys. Here’s a technical report on that.  It continues to this day, and there are l ..read more
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